Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
