🔗 Share this article

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.