Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
