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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent strugglers improving together. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still